Oscar and the prognosticators

There's safety in numbers when it comes to Oscar prognosticating. So why, then, are we hanging out with only one other movie lover/awards handicapper in saying that "The Dark Knight" will be nominated for best picture?

Oh well, not like we haven't been wrong before.

We consider ourselves in good company, though, because it's Peter Travers from Rolling Stone who picked the Batman flick as one of the five films from '08 that will be a trophy contender come February. We couldn't agree more, as we say in Gold Derby's just-posted early (way, way early) Oscar predictions from People Who Should Know.

We don't really, but just go with it, OK?

It's an august group -- how'd we get in there? -- that independently came up with picks for best film, best actor and best actress. There's a decent amount of consensus -- we all think Frank Langella ("Frost/Nixon") and Mickey Rourke ("The Wrestler") will get nods -- and the majority of us say "Milk" will be one of the top films and Anne Hathaway will be in the running for her "Rachel Getting Married" performance.

Only one awards watcher thinks that Clint Eastwood's latest, "Changeling," will get a best pic nod. After screening it this week, we're convinced of our decision to leave it off the list. Incredible auspices, strong talent, no doubt about it. But it never connected with us, leaving our hearts cold and our butts numb (140 minutes, and felt every bit of it).

Go check out the chart, lovingly prepared by Tom O'Neil, and feel free to keep watch over how many times we vacillate, see-saw, back-track and back-peddle in the next few months. We sense a drinking game on the horizon. Cheers!