Golden Globes Post-Mortem

Stayed home with a bad cold and watched the Globes on the sofa. Which in truth is really the way to go. On the red carpet, those Access Hollywood pros actually knew their stuff and managed not to ask too many stupid questions. Who came out ahead last night? George Clooney was smart to cut the political/serious vibe with some schtick. (And he knows what he's doing when he goes to the wall to sign for his fans.) Clooney will get many Oscar nominations, but the award he's likeliest to win is the same one he won last night: supporting actor for Syriana. While Gwenyth Paltrow was adorable in glowing maternity mode, and sincerely offered up her tribute to Anthony Hopkins, it's unlikely that Proof has any traction with Oscar voters. Felicity Huffman will land her Best Actress slot. And Rachel Weisz looks good for the supporting actress category. Obviously, Brokeback Mountain, Good Night and Good Luck and Capote picked up the most momentum, as did Walk the Line, which should now nudge Munich and Constant Gardener out of the fifth Best Picture slot. Reese Witherspoon is the one to beat for the Best Actress Oscar. And while Joaquin Phoenix won last night (in the musical or comedy category, as he pointed out), he will be watching last night's drama winner Philip Seymour Hoffman duke it out for Best Actor with Heath Ledger, who still has a shot. The 84-member Hollywood Foreign Press Association is influential in the sense that it helps to build momentum for winners in the last week of Oscar voting. But it isn't a bellwether of how the 5700 Oscar voters are leaning. The craft guilds are more reflective—which means that Crash is still in the Oscar race, even if it didn't get any play from the Globes.