The Departed: Oscar Bait?

The trade reviews on The Departed are in. And Oscarwatch is on the case.

I filed my Gurus 'O Gold predicts last week. Here's what I sent in:
BEST PICTURE
1. Dreamgirls
2.Little Miss Sunshine
3. The Queen
4. Babel
5. Flags of Our Fathers
6. United 93
7. The Departed
8. Little Children
9. Stranger than Fiction
10. The Painted Veil

BEST ACTOR
1. Peter O'Toole Venus
2. Forest Whitaker The Last King of Scotland
3. Leonardo DiCaprio The Departed (I'm assuming Nicholson is supporting)
4. Derek Luke Catch a Fire
5. Nic Cage World Trade Center
6. Ryan Gosling Half Nelson
7. Will Smith Pursuit of Happyness

BEST ACTRESS
1. Helen Mirren The Queen
2. Penelope Cruz Volver
3. Meryl Streep The Devil Wears Prada
4. Kate Winslet Little Children
5. Naomi Watts The Painted Veil
6. Toni Collette Little Miss Sunshine
7. Annette Bening Running with Scissors
8. I unintentionally left off Judi Dench for Notes on a Scandal, which I hear is a likelihood.

Comments

[Mark Rutland]

The Oscars antecipation became an unhappy act of media vanity. Why all these previews of who is going to be nominated, or not nominated, or win, or loose... It was one month before. Now it's three months before. The Oscars will become the joke of the last/next Oscar ceremony. Then someone will be innocent enough to ask: 'Why do television audiences of the ceremony keep going down?'
Don't you get it? People prefer the movies to the guessing. Like this, the Oscar magic is slaughtered every day.

[Spam Dooley]

I was asked by MCN to come here and tell you that the inclusion of Naomi Watts, Nic Cage and Stranger than Fiction loses you all credibility

I am Spam Dooley and I feed my people!

[Anne Thompson]

This year more than ever I am horrified by the tone of all the early projections, the authority and confidence displayed by people who haven't seen many of the movies, haven't gauged reaction from Academy screenings, haven't talked to Academy voters. I have an elaborate process by which I glean these things and in truth the Gurus O Gold thing makes me slightly uncomfortable. I have been restrained in my pronouncements, in fact. Only when I have seen the movie and am quite sure do I say--this is really going to happen. I know when I know. And I know when I don't know. So the list above is extremely speculative. And it doesn't matter what we say now. It's way too early. I stuck Nic Cage into a weak actors' field--I haven't seen the Will Smith movie yet, for example, and Paramount will lobby heavily for World Trade Center. Cage is a past Oscar winner. He is a very dark horse, as is Naomi Watts, but she is very good in Painted Veil. Do you know anyone who has seen it? Did anyone know Crash was going to win at this point last year? Mystic River wasn't even on Warners' release slate at this point in its year. A top ten list has ten movies on it. Only five will make it to best picture. Five will land some nominations and won't go all the way. And Stranger than Fiction will get some nominations. betcha.