Oscar Nominations Analysis

You have to hand it to hard-working AP scribe Dave Germain: he had the first Oscar noms story up this morning. Like Gregg, Nicole and me, he's been covering Sundance and now has to do a day of Oscar reporting. I've already spoken to happy nominee Mark Wahlberg this morning---"now my parents can call me a professional actor," he said. "I'm so fortunate."

Here's the complete list of nominations

Even with eight nominations, Dreamgirls' showing is a disappointment for Paramount/Dreamworks, even if Jennifer Hudson and Eddie Murphy and a host of technical nods went their way. Not scoring best picture, director or writer is a huge blow and a surprise, although enthusiasm for the film was lagging with its boxoffice. Finally, even though Bill Condon mounted a smart and great-looking movie with many strong performances, somehow Dreamgirls failed to rouse big emotions. I suspect the original material is the underlying issue here. It's hard to imagine a better movie being made from that musical.

The happy camper this morning--along with the folks behind Babel, The Departed, Little Miss Sunshine and Borat, which nabbed a surprise adapted screenplay nomination, is Clint Eastwood, whose Letters from Iwo Jima pushed Dreamgirls out of the best picture race. Interestingly, while Eastwood was nominated for directing Letters, the film did not get any acting nods, so it has to be considered a weak best picture contender. Letters had a total of four nominations, while its competitors Babel had seven, Little Miss Sunshine had four (though not directing, United 93's Paul Greengrass sqeaked in there), The Departed had five, and The Queen had six.

In the end, the move to put Letters out at year's end paid off handsomely, as Eastwood's star power and critics' raves turned what might have been a difficult-to-watch foreign language war film into a must-see. Eastwood knows what he's doing, and the Warners Oscar strategy that was criticized for pushing Blood Diamond over The Departed paid off for both. The actors branch gave DiCaprio his due for his meaty Blood Diamond performance rather than The Departed. (He must have gotten many votes for both films, and wound up not losing altogether.) Djimon Hounsou was also rewarded for his powerfully moving Blood Diamond role.

While it might seem that Sony Pictures Classics would be crying over Volver being shut out of the foreign language final five, truth is, the Best Actress nomination for Penelope Cruz will generate more boxoffice as the film goes into wider release on 700 screens, the most for any Pedro Almodovar film, says SPC's Michael Barker. Their Lives of Others is a strong candidate for the win—although Pan's Labyrinth, which scored six nominations today, will also get some traction there and may have been more widely seen. The trick with the foreign films is that only the Oscar voters who have seen all five films get to vote. So some of the films---like After the Wedding--that haven't been widely seen gain a bizarre advantage.

Finally it's a wide open race. But my money for best picture is on Little Miss Sunshine. WHY? It's the little best picture that could. And it's beloved.

Comments

[Peter]

I love the fact that Gosling got a nom for best actor. While he certainly deserved it, I can't help but think that Leo's 2 flicks probably split his vote and let Ryan sneak in. Kudos to the Academy for recognizing a truly independent almost under the radar performance that was outstanding. Can't wait for February!

[dyban]

Michael Ritchie’s Smile, from 1972, about a Bakersfield beauty pageant, is such a superior film to Miss Sunshine that there is really no comparison. And for me, it figures in any mention of Miss Sunshine. I feel that Sunshine is only considered good because so many of the films this year are not good.

[Jane Lamb]

Yeah, David Germain had the story out first apparently, and apparently doesn't know English....Scorsese is the losingest director in terms of Oscars?? Losingest? ha ha ha

[Kristin]

I was feeling all stressed, as I do every year, thinking about Oscar "strategies" and "tricks"...so I had to smile when I reached the end of your post. I hope the Oscars can always manage to bring it back to what's "beloved" by everyday people.

[Christian Johnson]

I found this year's list of nominees a nice mix of the popular and the artistic, something for everyone to root for. I was happy to see Pan's Labyrinth get quite a few noms and thought it interesting that Eastwood's lower budget film got nods as well.

The categories that always crack me up, at least with regard to guessing how the academy will vote are the Sound Editing and Sound Mixing categories. I have been to the Sound Editing Bake-off once in the past, and my wife did all the editing and mixing of her thesis film in film school, so I have a vague semblance of what is entailed in each. But I often wonder how many sound mixing oscars were won by films were the academy was actually impressed by the editing.

[mitkid]

As much as I enjoyed Little Miss Sunshine it rates well behind The Departed and Children of Men on my list. I've not seen Babel yet or the Eastwood flic but wouldn't be surprised if it moves down further. Sunshine for best screenplay though, absolutely.

[parke]

Sunshine should be happy just to be nominated. Pretty standard dysfunctional family you've just gotta love 'em stuff. Crash hurt Babel's chances, I suspect. Iwo Jima too cornball. The Queen gets my vote. Volver isn't much of a loss -- compare it with, say, All About My Mother -- it's not a top 5 Almodovar film, just more accessible to U.S. audiences because of Cruz.

[john]

I still feel the best supporting actress & supporting actor performance of 2006 was Emily Blunt and Stanley Tucci from "The Devil Wears Prada". Out of all the nomination snubs, they were the biggest snubs.