Kate Winslet plus four

 

So is it Kate Winslet's race to lose now?

She didn't get the Golden Globe-style double nominations, and now her hopes for a first Oscar (five previous nods) all depend on the lead category and her unsympathetic character in "The Reader."

Will it happen?

We say don't count out veteran Meryl Streep or relative newcomer Anne Hathaway.

By the way, those were the three of five nominees that your resident Gold Rusher picked correctly, and most prognosticators had done the same (though most chose Winslet's "Revolutionary Road" gig here). We'd stubbornly stuck by new Globe winner Sally Hawkins in the charming "Happy-Go-Lucky," and Kristen Scott Thomas in the drab "I've Loved You So Long." She spoke French! She was dowdy! We thought for sure the previous Oscar nominee would make it into the group again.

Instead, voters threw a couple of curve balls.

Here's the lineup:

Kate Winslet, "The Reader"

Meryl Streep, "Doubt"

Anne Hathaway, "Rachel Getting Married"

Melissa Leo, "Frozen River"

Angelina Jolie, "Changeling"

Leo has been a critical and indie film darling for this bleak barely-getting-by tale, but she's in the big league now. Jolie, a supporting actress winner and brother canoodler for "Girl, Interrupted," missed getting nominated last year for "A Mighty Heart," a fine film that no one saw. Though she was very good in "Changeling," audiences didn't much connect with this period drama, and this feels a lot like a make-good to a famous actress (whose partner just logged a nom).

We see this as a real three-way race between Winslet, Streep and Hathaway.