Predicting best pic; pushing Heath

We're happy to call a spade a spade here -- we've done The Big Flip Flop.

That is, we've finally switched our Oscar best picture choice from "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" to "Slumdog Millionaire." We thought we'd had it all figured out months ago, as you can hear in the above video where we go full pundit with some fellow Oscar watchers.

But that was two whole weeks ago, and a lot has happened since then, namely the SAG awards, the Producers Guild and the DGA. "Slumdog" was a hit at all three. (Writers Guild is tomorrow night, where we'll be live blogging. Come on back to see how the little Mumbai movie-that-could performs).

No matter how much we'd believed that "Button" would be the top choice for Academy voters, we see otherwise now. The momentum can't be ignored. It's all about the "Slumdog," even though films rarely win best picture without major acting contenders.

And if "Button" ends up winning -- it did score a near-record 13 nods -- that sound you'll hear will be our head exploding (and our accu-predictions hitting the skids).

In other Friday stuff:

Oscar campaigning is a multimillion-dollar full-scale attack, on par with a military invasion or a presidential race, especially if your name happens to be Harvey Weinstein.

We've all seen this season the steady drumbeat of A-listers hitting the party and chat show circuit. Whether it's Meryl Streep talking about how distasteful it all is, or Richard Jenkins at his low-key, deadpan, self-deprecating best, we're awash in Oscar nominees.

Against that backdrop, how does a studio go about selling an actor who's no longer around to tub thump for himself, as is the case with Warner Bros. and "The Dark Knight" supporting actor nominee Heath Ledger?

With a bit of subtlety, graciousness and -- gasp! -- restraint, says the Carpetbagger. Read the full story here.