A master Oscar predictor?

 

The bookies in Vegas have their way of handicapping the Oscars, Stephen Colbert has his -- it's called DaColbert Code -- and political statistician Nate Silver has another, probably patented approach. Hint: It has something to do with "logistical regression."

Don't ask for the recipe of how that sausage is made -- don't ask us, at least -- but Silver has released his findings for the "81st Annual Academy Awards" and for the most part he's telling us all what we already know. That is, the films and performances that have picked up the biggest kudo cache so far -- from the DGA, SAG, BAFTAs (pictured above) and various other industry groups -- are the most likely to win on Sunday.

Translation: "Slumdog Millionaire" has a 99% chance of taking home the night's top trophy for best picture and its affable, unflappable director Danny Boyle has even better odds (99.7%) of walking off with an Oscar.

The surprise here is in the best supporting actress category, which Silver's computations say will result in a Taraji P. Henson upset over favorite Penelope Cruz (51% for "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button's" adoptive mom as opposed to 24.6% for "Vicky Cristina Barcelona's" fiery, bi-curious ex-wife).

Wait -- what? Stranger things have been known to happen in the supporting races (Marisa Tomei in "My Cousin Vinny") and Henson has been tirelessly and graciously working the circuit. But how can this be? And by such a wide margin? Dude, show your work!

We're still betting on Cruz here (though we've wondered aloud about the possibility of Viola Davis sneaking in for that brief but highly impactful "Doubt" performance).

And Silver agrees with Colbert's fancy footwork on the best actor race -- it'll ultimately be Mickey Rourke, aka The Comeback Kid, over previous winner Sean Penn. A Meryl Streep last-minute rally over Kate Winslet? Not a chance. Anyone getting in the way of a Heath Ledger win? Nope.

Silver, who has been successfully picking winners on the political stage for quite some time, found that release date doesn't matter when it comes to awards, and neither does a movie's rating or eventual boxoffice take. Good thing for this year's crop of underperformers.

Check out his findings here.

Comments

[Matt]

See Keith Olbermann interview Nate Silver about his picks here:
http://gotchamedia.blogspot.com/2009/02/nate-silvers-oscar-predictions.html