Will the Oscar Go to Little Miss Sunshine?

I just caught up with this little tidbit from Kris Tapley's In Contention about how the Globes shafted "Little Children" by not playing a clip from the movie. Luckily, as the Globes had no impact on Academy voters, whose ballots were already in, "Little Children" did just fine on Oscar noms morning, picking up three nods.

Tapley thinks that Clint Eastwood is a powerful contender this year. While it is true that the Academy adores him (here's my DiCaprio/Eastwood story in THR) no one is going to take Martin Scorsese's directing Oscar away from him. That's what "The Departed"will win. No one's taking Helen Mirren's win away either. That's what "The Queen" will win. Peter O'Toole has a chance to build momentum and snatch Forest Whitaker's Oscar away. Why? Because this is O'Toole's last shot and the older Academy members feel that sentiment strongly. If either man was starring in a best picture contender that would clarify matters but they aren't.

My spot polls here in Park City indicate that this will be the most level Best Picture race in years. If anyone tells you they know which movie will win, they don't. My gut tells me that "Little Miss Sunshine" carries a great deal of affection. Each movie has different strengths: all five have the dominant actors branch strongly behind them. "Letters from Iwo Jima" may seem weak but people are really voting for both "Iwo Jima" and "Flags of Our Fathers," which has epic scale and scope. But Eastwood has won his Oscars; it's Scorsese's turn.

Academy members tend to be snobby about genre, which hurts "The Departed." The small-scale "The Queen" will win for best actress. And great as it is, "Babel" isn't as widely beloved as "Little Miss Sunshine," which is not "just" a comedy. It has depth. Like "American Beauty," "Annie Hall," or "It Happpened One Night," it's about us. We identify.