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Oscar Watching 101

Oscar Watch's Sasha Stone is right--she and The Envelope's Tom O'Neill—as well as the NYT's seasonal Oscar blogger, The Carpetbagger--are obsessed with Oscar stuff all the time, while the rest of us are covering the all-round industry beat. But we all come back around to the Oscars. It's the Big Show, after all. USA Today consults the Magic 8 Ball on Oscar predictions this year. Which means asking a bunch of people (including me) what we think. I agree with some things and not others. Since I wrote the Premiere Oscar Predicts piece back in October, I now think that Happy Feet could beat Cars in the animated category.
I believe that the December release of Clint Eastwood's Japanese-language Letters from Iwo Jima will probably give Flags of Our Fathers a boost. The Academy admires Eastwood; Flags played well for this select (older) group. And remember, the Oscar voters love him as a movie star, too. But The Departed, The Queen and Dreamgirls are the front-runners, followed by Flags, Babel and Little Miss Sunshine. And I think the actors could come through with some nods for Little Children. Even Phyllis Somerville—but she'd better do some publicity!

Curse of the Golden Flower

The trades have weighed in on China's submission for the Oscar, Curse of the Golden Flower, Zhang Yimou's latest, which enjoyably pits the mighty Gong Li against powerful rival Chow Yun Fat. Although this lavish royal melodrama is unlikely to be a critics' darling (Screen International's Mike Goodridge likes it best), it's one of Zhang's most spectacular entertainments, and as the most expensive movie ever made in China—it cost $45 million—it's a visual feast complete with swooping assassins on aerial wires and rivers of blood. When I spoke to Zhang on the closing night of the AFI Fest, he admitted that not only were the 10,000 yellow chrysanthemums real, but that most of the thousands of warrior extras were too--he tried not to rely on too many digital enhancements, he said.

The Lives of Others Ties Volver for Most European Film Award Nominations

It's a good day for Sony Pictures Classics, the domestic distributor for The Lives of Others and Volver, which got six nominations apiece:

THE NOMINATIONS FOR THE EUROPEAN FILM AWARDS 2006

At the Seville Film Festival the European Film Academy and EFA Productions announced the nominations for the European Film Awards 2006. The 1,700 EFA Members will now vote for the winners which will be presented during the Awards Ceremony in Warsaw on December 2.
Nominated are:
EUROPEAN FILM 2006
BREAKFAST ON PLUTO; Ireland/UK
directed by Neil Jordan
produced by Parallel Film Productions Ltd./Number 9 Films
GRBAVICA; Austria/Bosnia-Herzegovina/Germany/Croatia
directed by Jasmila Zbanic
produced by coop99 filmproduktion GmbH/Deblokada/Noirfilm/Jadran Film
DAS LEBEN DER ANDEREN (The Lives Of Others); Germany
directed by Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck
produced by Wiedemann & Berg Filmproduktion/Bayerischer Rundfunk/ARTE/Creado Film
THE ROAD TO GUANTANAMO; UK
directed by Michael Winterbottom & Mat Whitecross
produced by Revolution Films Ltd.
VOLVER; Spain
directed by Pedro Almodóvar
produced by El Deseo D.A., S.L.U.
THE WIND THAT SHAKES THE BARLEY; UK/Ireland/Germany/Italy/Spain
directed by Ken Loach
produced by Sixteen Films/Matador Pictures/Regent Capital/UK Film Council/Bord Scannán Na Héireann/The Irish Film Board/Filmstiftung Nordrhein-Westfalen/Element Films/Bim Distribuzione/EMC Produktion/Tornasol Films/Diaphana Distribution/Pathé Distribution/Cinéart/TV3 Ireland/Film Coopi

EUROPEAN DIRECTOR 2006
Pedro Almodóvar for VOLVER
Susanne Bier for EFTER BRYLLUPPET (After The Wedding)
Emanuele Crialese for NUOVOMONDO (Golden Door)
Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck for DAS LEBEN DER ANDEREN (The Lives Of Others)
Ken Loach for THE WIND THAT SHAKES THE BARLEY
Michael Winterbottom & Mat Whitecross for THE ROAD TO GUANTANAMO

EUROPEAN ACTRESS 2006
Nathalie Baye in LE PETIT LIEUTENANT
Penelope Cruz in VOLVER
Martina Gedeck in DAS LEBEN DER ANDEREN (The Lives Of Others)
Sandra Hüller in REQUIEM
Mirjana Karanovic in GRBAVICA
Sarah Polley in LA VIDA SECRETA DE LAS PALABRAS (The Secret Life Of Words)

EUROPEAN ACTOR 2006
Patrick Chesnais in JE NE SUIS PAS LÀ POUR ÊTRE AIMÉ (Not Here To Be Loved)
Jesper Christensen in DRABET (Manslaughter)
Mads Mikkelsen in EFTER BRYLLUPPET (After The Wedding)
Ulrich Mühe in DAS LEBEN DER ANDEREN (The Lives Of Others)
Cillian Murphy in BREAKFAST ON PLUTO & THE WIND THAT SHAKES THE BARLEY
Silvio Orlando in IL CAIMANO (The Caiman)

Gong Stars in Curse of the Golden Flower

Gong Li at the height of her powers reunited with old-flame director Zhang Yimou? The mighty warrior Chow Yun Fat? A lavish record budget shot in mainland China? What's not to like? Here's the website for Curse of the Golden Flower. And here's the official blog at MonkeyPeaches. UPDATE: Sony Pictures Classics is pushing Gong for Best Actress. I'll try to catch the film at AFI Fest; it's closing night.

Godard's Two or Three Things I Know About Her to Show in LA

A new 35mm restoration of one of my favorite movies of all time, writer-director Jean-Luc Godard's rarely-seen 1966 classic Two or Three Things I Know About Her... will screen December 22-28, 2006 at Landmark's Nuart Theatre in Los Angeles. Described by Village Voice critic Jim Hoberman as "one of the top ten films of the 20th Century," the splendid color movie will unspool in a new 35mm Scope print.

The director of Breathless and Masculine Feminine cast Marina Vlady as a suburban housewife who covets too many unaffordable material goods. So she becomes a part-time prostitute. My favorite sequence is the close-up of the universe swirling in a coffee cup. The film's widescreen cinematography is by Raoul Coutard (Contempt, Band of Outsiders, Jules and Jim, Shoot the Piano Player). "I wanted to include everything," said Godard, "sports, politics, even groceries. Everything should be put into a film."

Cruz Breaks Out in Volver

Penelope Cruz is a revelation in her native language in Pedro Almodovar's Volver. She will be nominated for Best Actress, and she is working the town like the well-connected, popular pro that she is. Which could help Volver do well in other categories beyond foreign film. Almodovar won for best screenplay for Talk to Her. Is a best director nomination in the offing as well? Volver could be his most accessible movie since Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown. If Dreamgirls and Babel fail to make the top five, Volver will be waiting in the wings. And never count out Sony Pictures Classics. They know what they're doing Oscar-wise. Every year they push several foreign nominees and often, a breakout picture that goes into the main categories, like Capote or Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon.

Babel Reviews

Early reviews are coming in on Babel, and they are polarized: New York, Newsweek and The New Yorker vote thumbs down on Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu and Guillermo Arriaga's complex storytelling, while Time and Rolling Stone give a thumbs up. So far it's earning a respectable 75 % fresh on Rotten Tomatoes. While Paramount Vantage may be reeling from these body blows—this is a review-driven movie if there ever was one, and Oscar hopes are running high—their big double truck quote ads will still have plenty of respectable reviewers gushing about the movie. And not everyone will read every negative review. The movie itself elicits strong positive and negative responses. Some people feel its powerful current. Others don't. Count me in the enthusiastically thumbs up column. Especially on a second viewing, the craftsmanship is exquisite. Is it very sincere? Yes. It's also more emotionally honest and less crudely manipulative than last year's Crash.

Here's David Ansen:

For a while, "Babel" holds you in its portentous grip. Iñárritu is a master of gritty textures, unnerving editing and menacing atmosphere, and the actors, both famous and obscure, are all first-rate. But what seemed like an original, searingly personal vision in "Amores Perros" has deteriorated, two films later, into pretentious, overdetermined shtik. Iñárritu and Arriaga no doubt sincerely believe they're making a serious statement about Humanity—the misunderstandings, cultural blind spots, cruel twists of fate, bad decisions and simple nastiness that escalate into global tragedies—but their fatalism is beginning to look as arbitrary and precooked as any Hollywood formula movie. Instead of selling facile uplift, they're pushing gloom.

And Peter Travers:

There is no way for a review to encompass the beautifully integrated, soul-searching portrait that Inarritu paints of a world in crisis. Pitt, raw and emotionally bruised, gives his most mature and moving performance to date. Cinematographer Rodrigo Prieto brings a poet's eye to the images. Stranded at the Mexican border, a victim of Bush immigration policy, Barraza leaves you shattered. At an ear-busting Tokyo disco, the sound goes dead so we hear only what Chieko hears. Kikuchi is unforgettable, nailing every nuance in her role. Just try to erase the sight of her, standing naked and vulnerable on a high-rise balcony while an uncaring city bustles below. All of Babel is like this – it's impossible to shake.

Australian Film Institute Awards Nominees

Last Night with Riviera posts the Australian Film Award nominees. Ten Canoes, Jindabyne, Suburban Mayhem and Candy led the pack with multiple nominations:

AFI AWARD FOR BEST FILM

Candy - Margaret Fink & Emile Sherman
Jindabyne - April Films & Catherine Jarman
Kenny - Clayton Jacobson & Rohan Timlock
Ten Canoes * - Julie Ryan & Rolf de Heer

AFI AWARD FOR BEST DIRECTION

Jindabyne - Ray Lawrence
Kenny - Clayton Jacobson
Suburban Mayhem - Paul Goldman
Ten Canoes * - Rolf de Heer & Peter Djigirr

AFI AWARD FOR BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

2:37 - Murali K. Thalluri
Kenny - Shane Jacobson & Clayton Jacobson
Suburban Mayhem - Alice Bell
Ten Canoes * - Rolf de Heer

AFI AWARD FOR BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Book of Revelation - Ana Kokkinos & Andrew Bovell
Candy - Luke Davies & Neil Armfield
Jindabyne * - Beatrix Christian
Last Train to Freo - Reg Cribb

Foreign Oscar Entries

The foreign film race is strong this year. Here's my sense of the top ten contenders based on festival buzz and reviews. I have only seen the top three and obviously the foreign film committee will look at them all:

1. The Lives of Others, Germany, Florian von Donnersmarck (Sony Pictures Classics)
2. Pan's Labyrinth, Mexico, Guillermo del Toro (Picturehouse)
3. Volver, Spain, Pedro Almodovar (SPC)
4. Indigenes, Algeria, Rachid Bouchared (Weinstein Co.)
5. Water, Canada, Deepa Mehta (Fox Searchlight, on DVD)
6. Curse of the Golden Flower, China, Zhang Yimou (SPC)
7. After the Wedding, Denmark, Susanne Bier (IFC Films)
8. Black Book, The Netherlands, Paul Verhoeven (SPC)
9. Nomad, Kazakhstan, Sergei Bodrov, Ivan Passer, Talgat Temenov (Weinstein Co.)
10. The Golden Door, Italy, Emanuele Crialiese (no distribution)

This Oscar site has everything you've ever wanted to know about all 61 films that have been submitted for foreign film Oscar consideration so far.

[Via Moviecitynews]

Toronto Picks and Pans

Inspired by Matt Riviera--who has seen a lot more movies in the last year than I have--here's one last whack at my eight days in Toronto:

Top 10 films at TIFF:
The Lives of Others (Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck, Germany)
Little Children (Todd Field, USA)
Stranger than Fiction (Marc Forster)
Borat (Larry Charles, USA)
Catch a Fire (Phillip Noyce)
Away From Her (Sarah Polley, Canada)
The Last King of Scotland (Kevin Macdonald, UK)
Venus (Roger Michell, UK)
The Namesake (Mira Nair, USA)
Infamous (Doug McGrath, USA)

Great Cannes holdovers:
Pan's Labyrinth (Guillermo del Toro, Spain)
Babel (Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Mexico)
Volver (Pedro Almodovar, Spain)
12:08 East of Bucharest (Corneliu Porumboiu)
2:37 (Murali K. Thalluri, Australia)

Also good but not great:
Breaking And Entering (Anthony Minghella, UK)
The Fountain (Darren Aronofsky, USA)
Confetti (Debbie Isitt, UK)
For Your Consideration (Christopher Guest, USA)
Dixie Chicks: Shut Up and Sing (Barbara Kopple, Cecilia Peck, USA)
This Filthy World (Jeff Garlin, USA)
Sleeping Dogs Lie (Bobcat Goldthwait, USA)

Disappointments:
Ghosts of the Cite Soleil (Asger Leth, Denmark/USA)
El Cantante (Leon Ichaso, USA)
The Fall (Tarsem, India/UK/USA)
A Good Year (Ridley Scott, UK)
Bonneville (Christopher Rowley, USA)

Here are my picks for:
Best director: Guillermo del Toro (Pan's Labyrinth)
Best actress: Kate Winslet (Little Children)
Best actor: Forest Whitaker (The Last King of Scotland)
Best screenplay: Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck (The Lives of Others)
Best movie moment: In Borat, the naked fat guy standing in the hotel elevator coyly covering himself
Best soundtrack: Catch a Fire

Children of Men: A Barking Vision of the Future

Based on the footage I saw at Comic-Con, one movie I'm really looking forward to, which was tantalizingly shown in Venice and not Toronto, is Alfonso Cuaron's futuristic thriller Children of Men, starring Clive Owen and Julianne Moore, which has opened in Blighty to strong reviews (especially for Oscar perennial Michael Caine) and business (it opened number one, with a $6,597 per theater average).
Early reviews: THR. "Based on a novel by British mystery writer P.D. James, the film works both as a thriller and as a satisfying political and social drama," writes Ray Bennett.
Variety.
Emanuel Levy.
The Brit reviews: "An entertaining and utterly barking vision of the future," writes The London Times.
"...there is something just so grimly and grittily plausible about the awful world conjured up here, and the full-on urban warfare scenes really are electrifying," writes The Guardian.
View London.
Empire Online.
The Daily Mirror.
The BBC.
Time Out interviews Cuaron about shooting the future in London:

"We said: let's do something like 'Y Tu Mamá También' – but in the future. Both this and 'Y Tu Mamá También' are road movies, first and foremost. There was also continuity between the two films in the sense that the principle was the same: to make a road movie in which context is as important as character. If you want to be mean, you could say that 'Y Tu Mamá También' is a very formulaic film – two guys on the road with a girl, shit happens. It's the same here: 'Children of Men' is a road movie in which a reluctant hero tries to bring a character to safety. You could give that story to Michael Bay. But for me, what was important was the social and political resonance and the context."

Sony Pictures Classics Picks Up Black Book

THR's Gregg Goldstein reports on the controversy surrounding Paul Verhoeven's Black Book, which Sony Pictures Classics has acquired. Some attendees at the Toronto International Film Fest made fun of Verhoeven for including erotic material in his World War II anti-Nazi Dutch drama, which is Holland's official Oscar submission for foreign film. SPC is also handling potential nominees The Lives of Others (Germany's official entry) and Pedro Almodovar's Volver, Spain's likely entry.
Update: The Dutch trailer.

The Lives of Others is Germany's Oscar Entry

Sony Pictures Classics is happy today. After scoring well with audiences in Germany and at fests like Telluride and Toronto, The Lives of Others is the official German submission for the Oscars. Here's the THR's Scott Roxborough:

Germany has picked Stasi drama "The Lives of Others" from first-time filmmaker Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck as the country's official entry for the 2007 foreign-language film Oscar.
"The Lives of Others," was the big winner at this year's German Film Awards, picking up seven Lolas, including best film and best acting nods for stars Ulrich Muehe and Ulrich Tukur.

This must-see movie, which SPC will open in February, will wind up near the top of my year-end top ten list.